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Thursday, December 1, 2011

Man-made Super-Flu Could Kill Half of Humanity

The following quote from an Internet source presents an interesting paradox for us, if it is true...

"A virus with the potential to kill up to half the world’s population has been made in a lab. Now academics and bioterrorism experts are arguing over whether to publish the recipe, and whether the research should have been done in the first place.

­The virus is an H5N1 bird flu strain which was genetically altered to become much more contagious. It was created by Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, who first presented his work to the public at an influenza conference in Malta in September.

Fouchier said the strain circulates in animals, particularly birds, but rarely affects humans.
In the ten or so years since bird flu first emerged in Asia, fewer than 600 cases have been reported in humans. But the H5N1 strain is particularly vicious, killing roughly half of patients diagnosed with it. What stops it from becoming a major threat to public health is that it does not readily transmit from human to human. Or at least it didn’t – until now.

Researchers in Fouchier’s team used ferrets – test animals which closely mimic the human response to influenza – and transmitted H5N1 from one to another to make it more adaptable to new hosts. After 10 generations, the virus had mutated to become airborne, which means ferrets became ill from merely being near other diseased animals.

A genetic study showed that the new, dangerous strain had only five mutations compared to the original one, and all of them were earlier seen in the natural environment – just not all at once. Fouchier’s strain is as contagious as the human seasonal flu, which kills tens of thousands of people each year, but is likely to cause many more fatalities if released."

The question arises; why wasn't Fouchier tarred, feathered and run out of the Netherlands in fear of his life? And this is where the paradox comes in... the scientific community seems to believe that (given time) this adaptive mutation could have occurred naturally. If it had, we would initially be defenseless against it and scrambling for a vaccine. Therefore Fouchier's research allows the strain to be studied and - hopefully - an effective vaccine developed. But, here's "the rub"... Fouchier wants his study to be published! So does virologist Yoshihiro Kawaoka, who led similar research in collaboration with the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and the University of Tokyo, and reached comparable results. And it is up to NSABB to give them the green light.
The other part of the paradox is, that many academics and biosecurity experts are naturally cautious about releasing information which could provide any bioterrorist with a ready recipe to hold the world to ransom. Some argue that such work should never have been done in the first place and call for international monitoring of potentially harmful research.

Assuming the natural mutation did happen someday, it would have yielded calamitous results for much of the world's population. Yet if it never happened naturally, somewhere in a laboratory (or two) there is now a man-made virus with the potential for mass destruction. I hope those labs have better security than the U.S. borders!

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